print
19.01.2011
Credit-Rating sums up accuracy of currency exchange rates forecasting in 2010
Credit-Rating has determined analysts whose forecasts were the most accurate in the year. We would like to remind that in June 2010 the agency conducted a poll of leading analysts on forecasting of exchange rates of the national currency to the USD and EUR for 2H2010. The accuracy of forecasting has been evaluated by the methodology developed by the agency.
The forecasting of USD/UAH exchange rate appeared to be rather simple task. Specifically, a median deviation of the forecast rate from the actual rate on all forecasts was recorded at UAH0.046, with the most accurate forecasts for the USD rate (including spot rate, inter-bank rate, and official rate of the National Bank of Ukraine made by the following analysts:
-
Eduard Nazarenko from Kreschatyk Commercial Bank PJSC with a median y-o-y deviation of 0.83%;
-
Representatives of VAB Bank (Kostromitsky P.V. and Palienko R.A.) with a median y-o-y deviation of 0.89%
-
Sergei Ponomarenko from Universal-Bank PJSC with a median y-o-y deviation of 1.07%.
We should also note the accuracy of forecasting the National Bank’s official rate for end-2010 made by Alexander Valchyshen from Investment Capital Ukraine with a deviation from the actual rate being at UAH0.0017.
A significant volatility of the EUR rate in 2010 caused wide deviations in forecasting its exchange rate. Thus, a median deviation from all forecasts for EUR from the actual rate (including the spot rate, inter-bank rate, and official rate of the National Bank) was recorded at UAH0.71 with the most being at UAH1.79. Thereat the majority of the analysts predicted a lower rate than it actualized later.
The most accurate results on all EUR forecasts have been demonstrated by the following analysts:
-
Treasury Department of Sberbank of Russia JSC with a median y-o-y deviation of 12.96%;
-
Analyst from Sokrat IG (Alexander Salivon) with a median y-o-y deviation of 13.78%;
-
Analysts from VAB Bank (Kostromitsky P.V. and Palienko R.A.) with a median y-o-y deviation of 19.03%.
Thereat the median EUR spot rate for end-2010 has been most accurately forecast by Alexander Zholud from International Centre for Policy Studies with a deviation of UAH0.013. Yet by total results of EUR rate forecasting Mr. Zholud has been ranked the 4th due to insufficient accuracy of his other forecasts for the EUR rate with a median y-o-y deviation of 20.52%. Mr. Zholud has also demonstrated high accuracy earlier – he was the best analyst in the Credit-Rating’s previous research on USD exchange rate forecasting in 2009.
Information on all credit ratings assigned in accordance with the National Rating Scale may be found in THOMSON REUTERS and BLOOMBERG information systems.
For more information, please contact:
Department of
Information and Communications
Sergey Rozumyak +38044490 25
50
SRozumyak@credit-rating.com.ua
Denis
Rudenko
DRudenko@credit-rating.ua
